Only 30% of Australians believe the ABS unemployment figure (4.9% for April)* while a clear majority of Australians (60.5%) believe the Roy Morgan unemployment figure (9.3%) is closest to Australia’s 'true level' of unemployment according to a special telephone Morgan Poll on the unemployment numbers conducted over the last two nights, May 9/10, 2012.
A majority of women (66.5% cf. 26.5%) and men (54.5% cf. 34%) and also majorities in each Australian State: NSW (60.5% cf. 30%); Victoria (66% cf. 25.5%); Queensland (60% cf. 30%); Western Australia (50.5% cf. 38%); South Australia (62.5% cf. 31%) and Tasmania (66% cf. 19%) all believe the Roy Morgan unemployment figure (9.3%) is closer to Australia’s true level of unemployment than the ABS unemployment figure (4.9%).
Gary Morgan says:
“This special telephone Morgan Poll shows a clear majority of Australians believe the Roy Morgan unemployment figure (9.3% for April) is closer to Australia’s 'true level' of unemployment than the official ABS unemployment figure (4.9%).
“This ‘disconnect’ creates a real problem for Treasurer Wayne Swan as he attempts to ‘sell’ his Federal Budget to the Australian people. Swan’s references to the strength of the Australian economy as shown by the low unemployment figures are simply not believed by many Australians who doubt the accuracy of the ABS unemployment figures.
“The low unemployment figures provided by the ABS also send the wrong signal to policymakers including the RBA, who are given a false view of the strength of the Australian economy. This false view explains why the RBA has been slow to respond to the slowing Australian economy. The Roy Morgan April unemployment figures show 2.159 million Australians (17.5%) are either unemployed or underemployed. Clearly, further cuts in interest rates are required by the RBA to help stimulate the economy and allow employers to start hiring from this large cohort of unemployed and underemployed Australians.
“Today’s article in The Age by Chris Zappone neatly sums up the problems with the ABS measure of unemployment — ‘The mismatch between official statistics and the reality of many Australians can be explained by the definition of “work.” According to the ABS: “Work is taken to mean work for one hour or more during the reference week, undertaken for pay, profit, commission or payment in kind, in a job, business or farm, or without pay in a family business or farm.” Self-employed Melbourne vehicle refitter Jim Ioannidis dismisses that definition as "absurd”.”
This special telephone Morgan Poll was conducted on the evenings of May 9/10, 2012, with an Australia-wide cross section of 651 aged 14 and over including 527 electors.
*Note: On Wednesday night the ABS unemployment figure quoted was the 5.2% for March as the ABS unemployment figure for April (4.9%) was only released on Thursday morning.
UNEMPLOYMENT (ABS V ROY MORGAN)
Electors were asked: “The monthly Australian Bureau of Statistics unemployment estimate is 4.9%* while the monthly Roy Morgan estimate is 9.3%. Which do you think is closest to Australia’s true level of unemployment - 4.9%* or 9.3%?”
All
Australians 14+
|
Gender & State
| ||||||||
May 9/10,
2012
|
Male
|
Female
|
NSW
|
VIC
|
QLD
|
WA
|
SA
|
TAS
| |
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
| |
Roy Morgan (9.3%)
|
60.5
|
54.5
|
66.5
|
60.5
|
66
|
60
|
50.5
|
62.5
|
66
|
ABS (4.9%)*
|
30
|
34
|
26.5
|
30
|
25.5
|
30
|
38
|
31
|
19
|
Can’t say
|
9.5
|
11.5
|
7
|
9.5
|
8.5
|
10
|
11.5
|
6.5
|
15
|
TOTAL
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
Total Electors
|
Federal Voting Intention
|
Non
Electors
| |||||
May 9/10,
2012
|
ALP
|
L-NP
|
Greens
|
Ind/ Others
|
Can’t say
| ||
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
| |
Roy Morgan (9.3%)
|
62
|
44.5
|
74.5
|
43.5
|
65.5
|
64.5
|
54.5
|
ABS (4.9%)*
|
29
|
44.5
|
18
|
43.5
|
27.5
|
23.5
|
34.5
|
Can’t say
|
9
|
11
|
7.5
|
13
|
7
|
12
|
11
|
TOTAL
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
All
Australians 14+
|
Age
| ||||||
May 9/10,
2012
|
14-17
|
18-24
|
25-34
|
35-49
|
50-64
|
65+
| |
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
| |
Roy Morgan (9.3%)
|
60.5
|
59
|
46
|
62.5
|
67.5
|
62
|
55.5
|
ABS (4.9%)*
|
30
|
37.5
|
46.5
|
26.5
|
27.5
|
26.5
|
29
|
Can’t say
|
9.5
|
3.5
|
7.5
|
11
|
5
|
11.5
|
15.5
|
TOTAL
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
For further information:
Gary Morgan: Office +61 3 9224 5213 Mobile +61 411 129 094
Michele Levine: Office +61 3 9224 5215 Mobile +61 411 129 093
