Sunday, October 28, 2012

Forget the newspoll fairytale - it's a load of bullshit.

Essential Report

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Sample size = 1,792 respondents
First preference/leaning to
Election
21 Aug 10
4 weeks ago
1/10/12
2 weeks ago
15/10/12
Last week
22/10/12
This week
29/10/12
Liberal
44%
44%
44%
44%
National
3%
3%
3%
4%
Total Lib/Nat
43.6%
47%
47%
47%
48%
Labor
38.0%
36%
36%
36%
36%
Greens
11.8%
9%
9%
9%
9%
Other/Independent
6.6%
7%
8%
7%
7%

2PP
Election
21 Aug 10
4 weeks ago
2 weeks ago
Last week
This week
Total Lib/Nat
49.9%
53%
53%
53%
54%
Labor
50.1%
47%
47%
47%
46%
NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. plus or minus 2-3%.
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